The next decade: 10 predictions for 10 years
It’s been a while since I wrote my last update as I was on vacation with friends and family back in South Africa, which gave me time to think and reflect on both the previous decade and what I think is in store over the next one. I wrote this post back then but only got around to publishing it now.
So here are my predictions for the next 10 years (Some I think are quite likely, others are more of a stretch)
1/ The African continent will produce its first tech billionaire (who is most likely to come from Nigeria)
The African continent is home to 1.2 billion people and is poised to grow to 2.5 billion by 2050 (26% of the world’s population). Despite its massive size, the majority of the continent is a consumer of technology and not a producer. This trend from consumer to producer is changing with more and more tech companies being built in hubs like Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, South Africa and Egypt, and the venture capital industry following suit.
2019 saw the region break its previous records with $1.34 billion in Venture Capital being invested in startups and Nigerian Jumia being the first Nigerian company to list on the NASDAQ and achieve $1b+ valuation, followed shortly by Interswitch who raised $200 million from Visa, making them the second startup to achieve unicorn status.
I expect to see more tech unicorns coming from the region and the first African tech billionaire to emerge.
2/ Mushrooms and MDMA will be the “new CBD,” legalized for breakthrough medical treatments for depression, anxiety and PTSD
Proponents of magic mushrooms have been touting the benefits of the fungi on mental health for years, but what was lacking was adequate scientific evidence to support these claims and enough public sentiment to support exploring further.
Two reasons why this is changing: 1) The growing global legalization of marijuana and CBD for both medicinal and non-medicinal purposes brings into question why these other substances are banned and if there are potential medicinal benefits to legalizing them. The “CBD effect” sentiment is likely to spill over to other currently banned substances like magic mushrooms and MDMA.
2) A growing body of research, scientific evidence and literature citing the potential mental health benefits that these drugs can offer especially where existing therapies have shown to have failed. (See here for some of these studies).
We’re already starting to see some countries loosening their laws on the ability to use magic mushrooms and MDMA to treat mental health issues such as depression, post traumatic stress disorder and anxiety.
3/ Investing in individuals will become commonplace (and the first million dollar baby will be born)
With the growth of influencer brands that have been built on YouTube and Instagram and the combination of blockchain and crypto giving the ability to “tokenize” anything, I predict that we’ll start to see a new wave of startups offering the ability to “back a human” and invest in their potential future earnings. As such, we’ll see a baby being born that will have raised $1m in investment before they can even speak.
4/ VR game and platform will reach 1 billion monthly active people. Laws will need to be redefined.
The exponential gains in VR technology will bring into question (Matrix and Ready Player One style) what exactly reality IS. A VR game will become so popular that 1 billion people will be plugged into it and playing each and every month. So influential will this game become, that the laws governing digital assets, sexual harassment, consent, property ownership, tax, how this VR world works and who gets to make those decisions will need to be redefined. The in game currency will be built on top of an open crypto network and will become on of the dominant currencies in the world, forcing regulators and central banks to recognize it as a formal currency.
5/ Gender neutral, gender diverse everything
The decade is going to see a massive proliferation of gender neutral or gender diverse characters across games, movies and fashion. Similar to how we see the latest growing trend in plant-based food, gender diversity will rightfully be having its same moment. Fashion labels will begin to cater for this in the design of their clothing, the marketing that we see and the way brands communicate with its audience. Leading Hollywood roles will no longer be dominated by straight cisgender males, and franchises like Disney and Marvel will create the first gender neutral superheroes. The same will be seen in the number of startups that are funded with gender diverse founding teams.
6/ A country pegs its currency to bitcoin as a base currency
It’s going to be driven by a financial meltdown and sanctions preventing the country from adopting the USD or another fiat currency, forcing the population to adopt a decentralized currency (most likely Bitcoin) as its base currency. Once the financial meltdown is over, distrust for the government will continue and Bitcoin will become the official currency of the country.
7/ Personal security / privacy / cloaking (personal anonymity) and the growth of the ‘dark web’
Privacy, or rather lack of privacy, was a big topic for the 2010s.
We saw how Facebook and Cambridge Analytica influenced world politics, how new AI companies are collecting troves of data on anybody and everybody, and how that data can be abused by governments to crackdown on their populations and turn every state potentially into a police state. This trend is only going to continue as governments around the world arm themselves further with better camera and facial recognition technology, AI and machine matching solutions and drones to enforce rules.
An equally large counterwave of privacy / cloaking startups will emerge. These startups will provide services to help individuals try to remain as anonymous as possible. Removing identification trails on the internet, protecting identities and pushing more and more web traffic to a simpler and easier to use ‘dark web’ but that maintains anonymity.
The digital natives born in 2030 will be more aware and more selective of who, where and what data they allow others to access, and do everything in their power to control it.
8/ TikTok ecosystem challenges Facebook; becomes global learning platform; influences media and becomes a core part of US president campaigning
We saw how Facebook was leveraged for Obama’s campaign to win the election and How Trump used both Facebook and Twitter. The next president will be a master of TikTok. TikTok is going to grow into a global power brand that will challenge the dominance of Facebook (and I predict will overtake it) and become the place to influence culture and the media (in the West).
The TikTok ecosystem will see the growth of thousands of startups (similar to the likes of the Apple app store) offering hundreds of services and additional bolt-ons to the TikTok platform and will become the single biggest learning platform overtaking YouTube, Coursera and anything else that has come before it.
9/ Global health crisis will be triggered by a new virus strain
Like every century before it, we will see a new outbreak of a global virus strain. I predict that it’s going to be driven by unsanitary conditions due to a lack of access to clean water but it could be as a result of the poor farming conditions and mass slaughter of animals for meat consumption. Either way, a new deadly and unknown virus will emerge and spread more rapidly than any virus that we have seen before.
Update: Unfortunately this one is already looking true with the Corona Virus having claimed 120 lives and rising.
10/ We continue to ignore climate change
We will see a massive growth in the number of technological innovations and startups working on solutions to address climate change but on a whole governments and politicians alike will do little to curb the damage that we are doing to the planet, deeming these entrepreneurial efforts unsuccessful in turning back the clock on our own destruction (not to sound too dramatic or anything).
And one BONUS prediction just for fun.
11/ Genetic cloning will be legalized in a country
I don’t have the data or real evidence to support this prediction but it’s my belief that as CRISPR and other genetic technologies advance, the next logical progression in the drive for technological progression and ensuring the health and safety of our species will be for a country to start experimenting with the cloning of human embryos.
That’s how I think the next decade will shape up. What are your thoughts and what do you think I’ve missed?
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